Overdose Deaths Are Falling, but Middle-Aged Adults Account for Most of Them

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Overdose deaths in the United States have dropped about 40 percent from their post-covid peak, according to a Johns Hopkins report released October 20. Some people we talk to about drug addiction treatment in Panama City picture a younger person when they hear the word overdose. The national numbers show the people dying are mostly in their 30s, 40s, and 50s.

Decline In Overdose Deaths

The report came from the University of North Carolina and was published through the Bloomberg American Health Initiative at Johns Hopkins. Deaths peaked at 112,418 in the year ending in August 2023. By the 12 months ending in April 2026, the count was down to 66,937.

The study called that decline fragile. The drug supply keeps shifting, and newer additives like xylazine and medetomidine, both of which we have talked about on this blog, are turning up in street drugs. The overall trend is good, but it can still reverse or not get any better from here.

Adults in Their 30s, 40s, and 50s

CDC figures for 2024 break the deaths down by age. These are deaths per 100,000 people in each group:

  • Ages 35 to 44: 44.2
  • Ages 45 to 54: 41.0
  • Ages 55 to 64: 38.6
  • Ages 25 to 34: 30.4
  • Ages 65 and older: 13.4
  • Ages 15 to 24: 8.5

Adults 35 to 64 made up roughly two-thirds of the 79,000 deaths that year, or about 52,900 people. Ages 15 to 24 made up under 5 percent.

The Johns Hopkins report sorts people by generation instead. Using provisional 2025 data, it puts the rate at 36.6 per 100,000 for Gen X, 34.0 for Millennials, 20.8 for Baby Boomers, and 8.6 for Gen Z. Gen X and Millennials together made up about 70 percent of the deaths in 2025.

Compared With the Past

You might expect the pattern used to be different, with younger people making up most of the deaths. In the CDC reports I reviewed, which reach back to 1999, that wasn’t the case. Adults in their 30s, 40s, and 50s have the highest rates in every report I could check.

A 2008 CDC report found that the 45-to-54 group passed the 35-to-44 group in 2004 and stayed on top through the end of that period. By 2017, the 35-to-44 group led again at 39.0 deaths per 100,000, with ages 25 to 34 (38.4) and 45 to 54 (37.7) right behind. Ages 15 to 24 sat at 12.6.

The older end moved a lot. In 1999, the rate for ages 55 to 64 was 4.2 deaths per 100,000. By 2017 it was 28.0, more than six times higher.

The people dying have been getting older. The Johns Hopkins report finds the median age at death has gone up about half a year, every year, since 2016.

The Decline Has Been Uneven

Between 2023 and 2024, rates fell in every age group, by different amounts:

  • Ages 15 to 24: down 37.0 percent
  • Ages 25 to 34: down 33.3 percent
  • Ages 35 to 44: down 27.3 percent
  • Ages 45 to 54: down 23.1 percent
  • Ages 55 to 64: down 21.5 percent
  • Ages 65 and older: down 8.8 percent

Younger groups dropped the most and the oldest dropped the least, which is why middle age and beyond makes up a bigger share of deaths each year.

Possible Explanations

Nobody knows for sure why. The study authors write that the data can’t separate age, time period, and birth year, so it’s hard to tell whether people are dying later because the same group is getting older or because younger people are using less.

However, there is evidence it could be the latter. Gen Z, the youngest group, shows lower rates of opioid use overall, and some people who stopped using illicit opioids may have left the at-risk group for good.

Looking Closer to Home

For families in Bay County and across the Florida Panhandle, the national numbers suggest the person at risk may well be someone’s parent, husband, wife, or coworker, rather than a teenager. Many have jobs and families. Some have used alcohol, pain medication, or other drugs for years, and from the outside they may look like they’re managing.

That can delay the conversation. Someone who has used for 20 years has often quit and relapsed more than once, may have tried to stop alone, and may not want to say they need help. If they use opioids heavily, stopping suddenly without medical support can be risky, so look into a medically supervised detox first.

If you’re worried about someone, keep naloxone at home, ask direct questions, and offer to help find treatment.

Our residential program is in Panama City, and we take calls from families as well as from people who are struggling themselves. Even if the first call is just for information, make that call today.